Electric Vehicles

The downturn in global new car sales started in 2017, steepened in 2020 thanks to Covid, and even though it has rebounded in many markets in 2021, it is still below the levels of 2019.

Worldwide new plug-in electric vehicle sales were up over 43% year-on-year, from 2.26 million in 2019 to 3.24 million in 2020. That delivered plug-in electric vehicle sales – both full battery electric and plug in hybrids – a 4.2 per cent share of the global new car market in 2020.

Looking closer for a moment at the trend shown in figure 1 (above), EV uptake appears to be following the typical uptake curve of all of our most ubiquitous current technologies, as shown in figure 2 (below)

If EVs are following this path, it may not be long before the ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicle goes the way of (and as quickly as) the horse and carriage (figure 3). This would be far faster than current industry predictions of 30 to 50% new EV sales by 2030.

Interestingly, not all countries are at the same point of the EV uptake curve. Norway (with 2025 legislated as their date to end all new non-EV sales) is nearing the top already – with monthly PEV sales in July this year hitting 84.7% and full battery EVs alone making up 61.4%.

Many nearby EU countries are not all that far behind. Sweden hit 37.6% PEV sales in July, Germany 23.5% and the UK 17.1%.

Another interesting sign-of-the-times is the decline of the diesel engine passenger vehicle. For example, in July this year UK new diesel passenger vehicle sales fell to 7.1% (from 16.5% a year earlier) – and BEV passenger vehicle sales (at 9%) exceeded sales of diesel vehicles for the first time.

Meanwhile, Australian PEV sales have also seen a ‘blistering’ rise … from 0.57% overall for 2020 to almost 2% in July 2021 monthly sales.

Given the emerging EV trend elsewhere – it seems very head-in-the-sand of our national government to be pumping billions into subsidising oil refineries whilst avoiding any form of EV Transition recognition or support.

Harking back to the point I began this article with, regarding the ongoing fall in new ICE vehicle sales that began back in 2017, it’s interesting to note that there has been a surprising rise in used car prices – first with recently second-hand vehicles and more recently, older ones.

Traditional automotive pundits have connected the fall in new sales and the rise in used prices to a combination of reduced availability of new cars due to the chip crisis (odd, since increasing used car prices began well before Covid), tightening economic conditions causing people to delay or avoid new car purchases, and a related increased demand for used cars causing decreased availability of them creating higher used car prices. (They also never seem to include the countervailing rise of new EV sales in their discussions ….)

The Osbourne Effect at play?

I would like to suggest an alternative explanation: that all three trends taken together are an example of ‘The Osbourne Effect’.

The term was coined after the collapse of the Osbourne Computer Company, when customers stopped buying the company’s first computer product after the premature announcement of its successor before it was available.

The Osbourne Effect is defined as “a social phenomenon of customers cancelling or deferring orders for the current soon-to-be-obsolete product as an unexpected drawback of a company’s announcing a future product prematurely” (Wikipedia).

You can easily apply this to EVs: cars that can do everything an ICE vehicle can have been around ever since the Tesla Model S arrived.

Given its capabilities, and the move to mass production heralded by the announcement of the Model 3 (which coincidentally went on sale in mid-2017) – I would contend that new ICE car purchasing has become ever more delayed as people await the arrival of mass market EVs from the rest of the manufacturers.

This is because EVs are seen as the better (and inevitable) vehicle technology that is close to being readily available. Especially so as EV prices are generally expected to soon be comparable to ICE ones.

In an effort to seemingly slow Tesla sales, the major manufacturers have effectively been feeding the Osbourne Effect by constantly announcing coming EV models – but delaying their introduction or manufacturing them in limited numbers.

In that light, falling new ICE sales and rising second-hand sales (and therefore prices) make sense. As the EV versus ICE price parity point draws closer, buying an ICE vehicle makes less and less sense as it is seen likely it will quickly become obsolete, with a resale price to match.

Instead, hanging onto the existing ICE vehicle, or if necessary buying a second-hand ICE to ‘tide one over’ would be the more sensible move.

This could also go some way to explaining why ever older second-hand vehicles are now becoming popular buys – acceptable EV pricing and availability are seen as getting closer and the temporary ICE vehicle is needed for less time.

To me, this is a better explanation for, and potential connection of, the three trends than that offered by the traditional explanations.

I would also suggest the auto makers themselves are quietly acknowledging an EV induced Osbourne Effect, for they are now starting to bolt for the EV door.

GM, Ford, Volvo and VW group have all set dates ranging from 2025 – 2035 for the cessation of ICE vehicle production, whilst others are setting targets for the electrification of their new fleet offerings.

Examples also include Stellantis* (the world’s fourth largest auto group) announcing that by 2030 they plan to have PEV sales of over 70% in Europe and over 40% in the US and the Jaguar Land Rover group (JLR) moving the Jaguar brand to full EV by 2025.

Even Toyota (the stand-out laggard on full-battery EVs, despite taking the early hybrid lead with the Prius way back in 1997) has recently announced the dedicated all-electric vehicle e-TNGA platform and stated their intention to release 15 new battery-electric vehicles by 2025.

Meanwhile, the market leader in EVs (Tesla) is doubling its 2020 output of around 500,000 vehicles to reach 1 million this year …. with two more Gigafactories nearing completion and expected to begin production late this year or early next. Plus there are growing rumours of a new ‘mass market’ small Tesla in the wings.

Tesla has also recently inked a deal with BHP to provide nickel from the Nickel West mine in WA that includes plans to make the battery supply chain more sustainable.

Given Tesla’s dominance in EV tech, rapidly growing production capacity and general commitment to sustainability – it is hardly surprising that Tesla is around eight times the current value of GM … and thirteen times that of Ford.

So over to you – the reader. Are we seeing the start of an Osbourne Effect triggered by Tesla and accidentally reinforced by the majors?

Will the EV Transition happen much faster than the industry predicted levels of 30 to 50% new EV sales by 2030 – instead hitting 80% or more of new car sales like Norway is now?

Will the vast majority of models in showrooms soon be electric powered simply because no-one will buy ICE ones anymore? … And will ‘electric cars’ soon be so ubiquitous that we drop word ‘electric’ from their description?

* Note: Stellantis:  the world’s fourth largest auto group. Their stable of brands include Peugeot, Citroen, Opel, Vauxhall, Jeep, Fiat, Chrysler, Ram, Maserati and Alfa Romeo.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – Even amid the parts shortage that has crippled the auto industry this year, Ford Motor Co. has managed to boost production of gas-guzzling F-Series pickups at its Kentucky Truck Plant in Louisville.

In fact, the large Super Duty trucks and SUVs made at the eastern Jefferson County plant alone account for more than half of the company’s North America profits, the leader of the local union representing plant workers often says.

But while Ford rakes in cash from those low-mileage trucks, the company this year has joined the chorus of automakers pledging a cleaner future in electric vehicles.

“We’re really at an inflection point,” Ford’s chief operating officer for North America, Lisa Drake, told a Greater Louisville Inc. audience in May. “If you’re not an (electric vehicle) believer, I think it’s coming faster than we might be expecting.”

Ford, GM and other automakers have said this year that fully electric cars will make up a large share of their sales by 2030 to 2035. President Biden set the bar at 50% of automakers’ sales, including plug-in hybrids, by 2030 in a nonbinding executive order earlier this month.

Industry analysts say the targets are ambitious, reflecting a response to government policies to curb climate change and to investors, who are signaling that electrification is the future. Electric-vehicle pioneer Tesla Inc., for example, is now worth more in the stock market than Ford, GM and Toyota combined, despite selling a tiny fraction of the vehicles sold by the traditional automakers.

The $1 trillion infrastructure bill that passed the U.S. Senate last week would provide $7.5 billion for a national network of charging stations, a move meant to bring electric cars into the mainstream. And Democrats are pushing other government incentives for the electric-car industry, such as beefing up tax credits now worth up to $7,500 per vehicle.

Still, it’s unclear whether consumers will jump on board quickly enough to meet the lofty goals.

“We will have electrified future. From our perspective, it’s going to be a very, very long way out,” said Joseph McCabe, president of industry consultant AutoForecast Solutions LLC.

Kentucky’s big stakes in the auto industry

Regardless of the pace, the apparently inevitable transition to electric cars raises questions about the future of Kentucky’s automotive industry, a pillar of the state’s economy.

Only Michigan and Ohio manufacture more cars than Kentucky, and the Bluegrass State has been along for the ride as the gas-powered industry has grown over the last decade.

Kentucky vehicle- and auto parts-makers accounted for more than 52,000 jobs last year, up 49% since 2010, according to government statistics. Those jobs pay more than $64,000 a year, according to WDRB’s analysis of government data, compared to the state average of just under $51,000.

The state has four assembly plants – Ford’s two factories in Louisville; Toyota’s largest factory in the world in Georgetown; and GM’s Corvette plant in Bowling Green – as well as dozens of supplier manufacturers providing parts to those operations.

Kentucky’s deep entrenchment in the industry will be a leg up even as vehicle profile evolves, analysts say.

“I’m sure that Kentucky is in the cards for automakers as they plan the electrified future,” said Autotrader executive analyst Michelle Krebs.

But so far, Kentucky has watched neighboring states in the South and Midwest land battery plants and other big electric-car investments, without any major announcements in the Bluegrass.

Gov. Andy Beshear told WDRB News in June that Kentucky has several “exciting possibilities” in the electric vehicle industry.

“The great thing is we’ve got a lot of great sites (for new plants). And we have a lot of trade workers already in the automotive industry, and we’ve got some great universities,” Beshear said. “So, we’re working really hard on a number of fronts to make sure we are front and center.”

Beshear also noted the high stakes, saying Kentucky’s auto industry must avoid the fate of its coal-mining industry, which has been decimated by the rise of natural gas as a power source.

“You got a lot of people in eastern Kentucky that were left high and dry when the new energy jobs were created elsewhere. We’ve got to make sure that doesn’t happen on electrification,” Beshear said.

Larry Hayes, Beshear’s economic development secretary, declined to answer questions for this story, saying he didn’t want to jeopardize projects in the works.

Plants ‘on the bubble’

Even if Kentucky maintains its outsized place in the auto industry, the looming shift to electric vehicles raises other questions.

Will auto plants of the future employ the same number of people as they do today?

“The truth of the matter is that an electric vehicle just has so many fewer moving parts,” said David Clayton, director of the International Center for Automotive Research at Clemson University. “So when you talk about assembly of those vehicles, it is simpler.”

Other portions of the existing industry are threatened, such as plants producing gas-powered engines (a portion of Toyota’s Kentucky operation) and supplier plants that make transmissions, fuel systems and exhaust systems.

But with battery plants becoming a source of new jobs, Clayton said, it’s unclear whether the future industry will have more or less workers than today.

Bernard Swiecki, assistant director of the Ann Arbor, Michigan-based Center for Automotive Research, said electric vehicle leader Tesla employs more people per car at its California factory than do incumbent automakers like Ford and GM at their plants.

“It’s very inefficient,” he said.

Another possibility, according to AutoForecast Solutions’ McCabe, is that electric vehicles will last longer than conventional ones.

“The brakes last three times longer; there’s no fluids. There’s just less to fix,” McCabe said.

While good for consumers, longer-lasting vehicles would likely mean fewer new cars produced each year, which in turn would cut demand for labor in car factories, McCabe said.

“There are going to be some plants that are on the bubble,” he said.

The United Auto Workers’ union, which represents more than 50,000 rank-and-file workers at plants in the U.S., acknowledged the threat that electric vehicles pose to those jobs in a 2018 study.

“What is required is commitments from employers to re-tool plants and re-train workers to maintain employment levels and allow American workers to make advanced technology vehicles,” the report said.

Early investments bypass Kentucky

While it’s still early in the electrification game, car companies have largely bypassed Kentucky as they lay out their manufacturing plans.

In Michigan, Ford is spending $700 million on a plant expansion to make an all-electric version (the “Lightning”) of its F-150 pickup, the country’s best-selling vehicle.

GM is retrofitting a Detroit factory to produce an electric version of the GMC Hummer and, eventually, Chevrolet Silverado pickup. Ford also chose southeast Michigan for a research and development facility for battery technology.

In Ohio, GM and electronics-maker LG are building a battery plant near the company’s former Lordstown car plant, which itself has been retrofitted to make electric trucks by a startup called Lordstown Motors, though the company faces uncertain prospects

In Tennessee, GM and LG are building a battery plant near GM’s Spring Hill Assembly plant, which will be repurposed to produce an electric Cadillac SUV.

In Georgia, Korean firm SK Innovation is building a battery plant that could eventually employ 6,000.

In Alabama, Mercedes Benz is building a battery plant near its Tuscaloosa facility, where the German automaker will start producing electric SUVs alongside conventional gas-powered and hybrid gas-electric models next year.

While Kentucky has yet to land a multi-billion-dollar battery plant or a promise to remake a factory for electric cars, the Bluegrass State has seen a few moves in that direction.

Japanese conglomerate Hitachi unveiled a plan last year to spend $95 million to make electric motors at a plant in Berea, Ky., which could eventually employ 162. The plant will make motors for Honda, according to Beshear’s office.

And Chinese battery manufacturer CATL, which supplies batteries to Tesla, is considering a plant in Glasgow, Ky., which could employ 350.

“A couple of our recent announcements show we’re already in the game,” Beshear told WDRB in June. “But we want to make sure that the major players are in Kentucky.”

Analysts say only a fraction of the industry’s electric investments have been decided, and Kentucky is a good position given the stakes automakers have already put down in the state.

“They’re just starting their wave — their strategy — of electrification,” said Swiecki, of the Center for Automotive Research. “So, it’s not that other communities are getting these investments, and Kentucky is somehow getting left behind. That’s not the case at all.”

Todd Dunn, president of UAW Local 862, the union that represents about 13,000 rank-and-file workers at Ford’s two Louisville plants, said union leaders spoke with Beshear in May about being “proactive” in maintaining jobs and landing new investments.

He said union workers are best equipped to staff plants making electric vehicles.

“Electrification brings changes to those manufacturing processes, and we have to be able to adjust,” Dunn said. “There is no reason we cannot adapt to that change.”

Dunn sees promise in Ford’s decision to electrify the F-150. The next step would be a battery-powered version of the F-Series trucks made in Louisville, which are larger than the F-150, use lots of gas and are often used in construction and other work-related settings.

“Is there a future for an electric Super Duty? I think the possibility is there,” Dunn said. “We have to gravitate toward the future and what it’s going to bring.”

A Ford spokeswoman declined to comment on its future manufacturing plans.

A GM spokeswoman said the future of the company’s Bowling Green assembly plant is “certainly strong” with the eighth generation of the sports car in the works. McCabe said there are rumors of electric Corvette, though GM did not directly comment on that.

GM spokeswoman Rachel Bagshaw added that GM’s plan to source renewable energy from the Bowling Green plant from a large solar farm in Logan County helps secure the plant’s place in the company’s “zero emissions” portfolio.

“Investments like this continue to support a bright future for Corvette and our plant,” she said in an email.

Toyota builds gas engines as well as cars at its Georgetown, Ky. factory, its largest plant in the world. It’s also the most electrified auto plant in Kentucky, building hybrid gas-electric versions of the RAV4, Avalon and Camry.

The company declined to discuss how the product mix at the plant might change.

“We see a future that has room for a wide variety of powertrains and fueling options,” Toyota’s Kim Ogle said in an email. “Different options address different needs and while unable to speak in specifics, we can assure you that Toyota is committed to building powertrains in Kentucky.”

‘In the very early stages’

While battery-powered vehicles are a growing share of the auto industry, they remain a small slice of the pie.

“I think we’re in the very early stages, obviously, of (electric vehicles),” said Kevin Collins, owner of Bill Collins Ford, a Louisville dealership. “There is probably a lot more unanswered questions than there are answers at this point.”

Those questions include how long the cars can operate before having to recharge – especially on long trips – what it would cost the customer to install high-capacity charging at home and the full cost of ownership of the car over time.

Collins sells one fully electric vehicle at his dealership on Bardstown Road, the Mustang Mach-E, a small “performance SUV,” that starts at about $43,000.

“I’ve sold every one of the them I had to sell,” Collins said.

Still, the market for electric cars is limited, he said.

“It’s a very small percentage of consumers right now that will really buy an (electric vehicle),” Collins said. “And each year, it gets a little more.”In the April-to-June period, cars with only electric power made up 2.6% of the 4.4 million new vehicles sold in the U.S., according to Cox Automotive.

When hybrid cars – which use battery packs to supplement gas engines – are added to the mix, the share of the auto market for cars with some electrification rises to 8.5%.

While still a negligible portion of the industry, analysts note that the electric sector is growing quickly. In 2020, electric cars were about 2% of the market, and the total electrified share (including hybrids) has roughly doubled in a year, according to Cox.

“Consumers are adopting them at a very, very quick rate. And it shows, really, no sign of slowing,” Swiecki said.

Still, pure battery-powered vehicles will need to grow at astronomical rates to match the ambitions automakers have set this year.

In January, General Motors pledged to transition its light-vehicle fleet to pure-electric by 2035, a goal McCabe, the industry consultant,calls “very lofty.”

Ford responded by setting a goal of 40% of its fleet being all-electric by 2030, with the automaker planning to invest $30 billion into electrification efforts over the decade.

“We’re really investing a lot in this space, because we see it coming fairly quickly,” Drake, the Ford executive, told the Louisville audience in May.

Other incumbent automakers such as Stellantis NV (parent of Jeep and Chrysler) and Mercedes Benz have also projected a future in electric vehicles.

Toyota is a notable exception. Instead of embracing pure electric vehicles, Toyota has focused on hybrids, which make up about a quarter of its sales, according to Cox Automotive.

Toyota President Akio Toyoda said in December that electric cars may tax the Japanese power grid, are often powered by electricity burned from planet-warming fossil fuels and are too expensive for many buyers.

Toyota has also bet heavily on vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells, a market that is so far limited to California.

The success of the hybrid RAV4 built in Kentucky shows how hybrids will be important part of the industry’s future, Toyota’s Ogle told WDRB News.

“Ultimately, our customers will — and should — decide which powertrain technology is right for their lifestyle and needs. We will continue to provide a portfolio of electrified options,” she said.

For Ford, there’s reason to be skeptical of the company’s projections. Ford unveiled an all-electric version of its Focus hatchback with much fanfare in 2011, only to stop making the car in 2018 when the company decided to ditch sedans altogether.

But analysts say the plug-in sector is on a much firmer footing now than a decade ago, when the only all-electric vehicles widely available were small, economy cars – the Focus, Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt.

Battery technology has improved, bringing the cost of electric vehicles closer to that of their conventional counterparts, and giving many a range a few hundred miles on a charge.

“Now, there’s a better chance that the (electric) vehicle is a utility, or a large vehicle of some kind that people actually want, as opposed to an electrified version of a small economy car,” said Swiecki, of the Center for Automotive Research. “So suddenly, these vehicles fit consumers needs in terms of the type of vehicle, the size of vehicle, how far it’ll go, (and) it’s more affordable than it was in the past.”

And governments such as the U.S., European Union and China are boosting the sector by enacting stricter emissions limits, building charging stations and subsidizing purchases and production, all in an effort to arrest climate change.

“The future of the auto industry is electric. There’s no turning back,” President Biden said in May while visiting Ford’s electric vehicle center in Michigan.

Biden administration said earlier this month that it would enact higher mileage and anti-pollution standards from the Environmental Protection Agency and Transportation Department as part of Biden’s goal to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030.

Biden’s infrastructure package would also ramp up government investment in charging stations, a job that has so far fallen to a hodgepodge of private actors.

In Louisville, a nonprofit group of enthusiasts called Evolve KY has overseen the installation of 35 free, community charging stations around town. Like water fountains, the charging stations are free to use, and the electricity is so cheap that YMCAs and other hosting locations pick up the cost.

“We see ourselves as the catalyst,” said Stuart Ungar, co-founder of Evolve KY. “We kind of feel like, if we can do it, anybody can do it.”

In addition to governments, there’s another important constituency telling carmakers that electrification is the future: investors.

Electric-vehicle pioneer Tesla’s stock has shot up seven-fold since early 2020, giving the Palo Alto, California company a market value of more than $700 billion.

RELATED: Tesla plans a Louisville ‘dealership.’ Kentucky law could complicate that

By comparison, Ford is worth about $54 billion.

“The conventional car (manufacturers) have gotten the memo, that they either take it seriously,” Ungar said, “Or they get left behind.”

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news, national

Special taxes on electric cars are likely to put the brakes on sales. With Victoria introducing a road user charge for electric vehicles from July and South Australia slated to introduce a similar impost next year, a poll has found many potential buyers could be put off. The Australia Institute quizzed about 600 people in SA and found that for almost 70 per cent a user tax would make them less likely to purchase an electric vehicle. The survey also revealed more than 40 per cent had considered going electric with their next vehicle purchase and more than 70 per cent believe them good for the planet. Australia Institute SA Director Noah Shultz-Byard says it’s clear new user charges will “pull the handbrake” on consumer enthusiasm for electric cars. “Our research shows that the vast majority want more EVs on the road, not less, because they are considered to be good for the climate, health and the environment,” he said. Victoria’s new tax imposes a 2.5 cent charge for each kilometre travelled, putting the annual cost at $500 for a vehicle travelling 20,000 kilometres. It narrowly passed the Victorian parliament despite an alliance of 25 car manufacturers and environmental groups writing to MPs urging them to vote against the plan. The letter, signed by Hyundai, Volkswagen, Uber and the Electric Vehicles Council among others, described the tax as the “worst electric vehicle policy in the world”. SA had also planned to introduce a road user charge this year but has put it off until July, partly to gauge the impact of the Victorian legislation. When it was first proposed, Treasurer Rob Lucas said SA’s charge would be based on a similar distance-travelled scheme, with motorists providing odometer readings to ensure all road users contributed fairly to the state’s road maintenance investment. “The reality is, if you’re driving an electric vehicle then you’re not paying fuel excise at the pump and you’re contributing significantly less to the vital upkeep of our vast road network,” the treasurer said. But those opposed to the measure say the tax will only slow progress towards more environmentally-friendly motoring and are calling for incentives to help reduce upfront EV costslike subsidies or stamp duty waivers. In the Australia Institute Survey, 72 per cent of respondents supported the introduction of incentives while the Australian Electric Vehicle Association said most industrialised countries were prioritising them to boost sales and create jobs The association said the Victorian measure was the only stand-alone electric vehicle tax in the world. “No other jurisdiction has introduced such a targeted levy on the cleanest vehicles on the road without significant incentives to balance it out,” it said in an open letter to the Victorian government. Regardless of the debate over taxes, electric cars sales continue to represent a tiny slice of the new vehicle market. In July, 84,161 new cars and trucks were retailed across the country with 515 of them electric and 325 plug-in hybrids. Standard hybrids, which use a petrol engine to recharge the vehicle’s batteries, were more popular, with more than 5000 sold last month. Australian Associated Press

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Special taxes on electric cars are likely to put the brakes on sales.

With Victoria introducing a road user charge for electric vehicles from July and South Australia slated to introduce a similar impost next year, a poll has found many potential buyers could be put off.

The Australia Institute quizzed about 600 people in SA and found that for almost 70 per cent a user tax would make them less likely to purchase an electric vehicle.

The survey also revealed more than 40 per cent had considered going electric with their next vehicle purchase and more than 70 per cent believe them good for the planet.

Australia Institute SA Director Noah Shultz-Byard says it’s clear new user charges will “pull the handbrake” on consumer enthusiasm for electric cars.

“Our research shows that the vast majority want more EVs on the road, not less, because they are considered to be good for the climate, health and the environment,” he said.

Victoria’s new tax imposes a 2.5 cent charge for each kilometre travelled, putting the annual cost at $500 for a vehicle travelling 20,000 kilometres.

It narrowly passed the Victorian parliament despite an alliance of 25 car manufacturers and environmental groups writing to MPs urging them to vote against the plan.

The letter, signed by Hyundai, Volkswagen, Uber and the Electric Vehicles Council among others, described the tax as the “worst electric vehicle policy in the world”.

SA had also planned to introduce a road user charge this year but has put it off until July, partly to gauge the impact of the Victorian legislation.

When it was first proposed, Treasurer Rob Lucas said SA’s charge would be based on a similar distance-travelled scheme, with motorists providing odometer readings to ensure all road users contributed fairly to the state’s road maintenance investment.

“The reality is, if you’re driving an electric vehicle then you’re not paying fuel excise at the pump and you’re contributing significantly less to the vital upkeep of our vast road network,” the treasurer said.

But those opposed to the measure say the tax will only slow progress towards more environmentally-friendly motoring and are calling for incentives to help reduce upfront EV costslike subsidies or stamp duty waivers.

In the Australia Institute Survey, 72 per cent of respondents supported the introduction of incentives while the Australian Electric Vehicle Association said most industrialised countries were prioritising them to boost sales and create jobs

The association said the Victorian measure was the only stand-alone electric vehicle tax in the world.

“No other jurisdiction has introduced such a targeted levy on the cleanest vehicles on the road without significant incentives to balance it out,” it said in an open letter to the Victorian government.

Regardless of the debate over taxes, electric cars sales continue to represent a tiny slice of the new vehicle market.

In July, 84,161 new cars and trucks were retailed across the country with 515 of them electric and 325 plug-in hybrids.

Standard hybrids, which use a petrol engine to recharge the vehicle’s batteries, were more popular, with more than 5000 sold last month.

Australian Associated Press

Originally published on PITT Swanson Engineering.

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Summary

Most electric motors for electric vehicles rely on permanent magnets made with rare-earth metals. Researchers at the University of Pittsburgh Swanson School of Engineering are working with Powdermet Inc., a nanomaterials and advanced materials research and development company in Euclid, Ohio, to develop a rare-earth mineral free electric engine. The project recently received $200,000 in funding from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

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The global market for electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to grow by more than 25 percent by 2030, with some politicians and manufacturers alike calling for a phase-out of gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035. The White House is even expected to ask automakers to commit to at least 40 percent of its new vehicle sales being electric by the year 2030.

However, most electric motors for electric vehicles rely on permanent magnets made with rare-earth metals, which are — as the name implies — a limited resource*. In addition to their rarity, extracting and processing these materials has severe environmental consequences, leaving behind a significant amount of toxic waste. And since China accounts for the vast majority of rare-earth production, price volatility is another concern. To meet the needs of a growing market, designing electric motors without rare-earth metals is a crucial step, especially for sustainable supply chains. [*Editor’s note: rare-earth elements are actually not that rare — the name is misleading and doesn’t stem from them not being abundant. “Despite their name, rare-earth elements are relatively plentiful in Earth’s crust, with cerium being the 25th most abundant element at 68 parts per million, more abundant than copper.” However, they are often hard to extract very economically because they are not found in big lumps or ores. “Because of their geochemical properties, rare-earth elements are typically dispersed and not often found concentrated in rare-earth minerals. Consequently, economically exploitable ore deposits are sparse (i.e. ‘rare’).”]

Researchers at the University of Pittsburgh Swanson School of Engineering are working with Powdermet Inc., a nanomaterials and advanced materials research and development company in Euclid, Ohio, to develop such an alternative. The Powdermet-led project hopes to create an electric machine that uses permanent magnets made of more abundant metals instead of rare-earth metals. The project recently received $200,000 in funding from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) that will allow Powdermet to commercialize MnBi-based permanent magnetic materials developed at the U.S. Department of Energy Ames Laboratory Critical Materials Institute (CMI).

“The Green technologies of the future — electric vehicles, wind turbines, wave energy, drones, and more — rely on rare earth permanent magnets not currently available from domestic suppliers, resulting in significant supply chain risk. Powdermet is tremendously excited to bring our 25 years of nanostructured powder processing experience to rapidly scale production of rare earth free magnet technology developed at CMI,” said Andrew Sherman, founder and Chief Technology Officer of Powdermet and principal investigator. “Collaboration with the technical experts at AMPED, Pitt, and CMI will allow us to accelerate introduction of domestically produced rare earth free permanent magnets to North American supply chains.”

At Pitt, this work will be led by Paul Ohodnicki, associate professor of mechanical engineering and materials science, and Brandon Grainger, Eaton Faculty Fellow and assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering. Together, the Pitt team will use ANSYS MotorCAD to benchmark an electric motor design that takes advantage of the novel magnetic materials.

“Permanent magnets are used in electric motors because they can produce and maintain a strong magnetic field, even in the presence of an opposing magnetic field, as opposed to electromagnets, which require an electric current,” explained Paul Ohodnicki, associate professor of mechanical engineering and materials science at Pitt. “Using alternative materials such as MnBi-based permanent magnets, developed at the Ames Laboratory, to create a permanent magnet instead of rare-earth metals like neodymium and dysprosium would make electric vehicles more affordable, accessible, and sustainable, and would help the U.S. become a leader in the EV market.”

Powdermet is an industry participant of the Advanced Magnetics for Power & Energy Development (AMPED) Consortium, a research consortium led by director Ohodnicki and co-director Grainger at the University of Pittsburgh. AMPED includes several schools at Pitt, Carnegie Mellon University, North Carolina State University, national labs, and industry partners, bringing together an interdisciplinary skillset well-suited to the research and development of magnetic materials for power electronics and power conversion systems.

“AMPED’s mission is both to prepare the next generation of multidisciplinary researchers to innovate with soft magnetics materials in future power conversion systems and to help our partners in industry develop and test the innovations that the world needs now,” said Grainger, who is also associate director of the Energy GRID Institute. “This partnership with Powdermet is a great example of the kind of foundational research and development work we can do when we collaborate with our partners from various engineering disciplines, and we’re excited by the potential impact on the future of EVs.”

 

 
 

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HAYWARD — The City Council has given its support to a push to end the sale of all new gasoline-powered vehicles in Hayward and throughout California by 2030, five years before the target date that Gov. Gavin Newsom has set.

Other cities, including Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond and San Leandro, also have come out in support of reaching 100% zero-emission vehicle sales in the state within nine years. In addition, Berkeley officials want at least 80% of car sales in Berkeley to be electric within nine years.

The effort to speed up the switch to electric vehicle sales only is being driven by ZEV2030, an Oakland nonprofit that says the accelerated timeline is necessary to curb greenhouse gases and prevent the climate crisis from worsening.

Peter Meyers of ZEV2030 told the Hayward council on July 20 that the fire and explosion in May at the Russell City Energy Center, which is operated by Calpine Corporation of Houston, underscored that public safety depends on a transition to greener energy sources.

The blast at 3862 Depot Road was so powerful it sent a 15-pound metal chunk through the roof of an unoccupied trailer at a transitional housing center for homeless people, some 1,200 feet away from the power plant.

Another piece of metal weighing 51 pounds landed at the city’s Water Pollution Control Facility at 3700 Enterprise Ave., near the power plant.

The explosion and fire showed “how serious of a threat our continued reliance on fossil fuels is to the entire community,” Meyers told the council. “Every opportunity to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels is a fantastic opportunity.”

His organization points to an analysis by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations that found that there were just nine years left to transform the economy and how people travel to avoid the worst of effects of climate change. It’s what led to the statewide campaign.

The Hayward council unanimously supported the resolution without comment.

The goal of securing 100 percent zero-emission vehicle sales throughout California by 2030 is “an aspiration,” Mayor Barbara Halliday said in an interview.

“I hope it happens,” Halliday said. “I don’t think we can do enough right now. And this is a problem all over the world. This is a serious environmental crisis.”

Halliday said she was confident that the switch would be good for Hayward businesses as the vehicle economy changes and more people drive electric vehicles.

The mayor said she drives a hybrid Prius. Her family’s next vehicle purchase will be an electric vehicle, the mayor said.

Thirty-three Hayward city vehicles will need to be replaced by an electric one between 2030 and 2035 if the city takes a more aggressive approach toward climate change, Nicole Grucky, a sustainability specialist with the city, and Erik Pearson, an environmental services manager, said in a report for the council.

Currently, there are 147 public charging stations in Hayward, 30 of which are free, according to PlugShare, a sustainable energy data and infrastructure company.

Newsom signed the executive order to phase out new gasoline-powered cars by 2035 last September. The Hayward resolution calls for the governor, Legislature and the California Air Resources Board to push for the earlier timeline.

According to ZEV2030, General Motors will offer 30 electric vehicles models globally by 2025 and plans to sell only the models by 2035; Ford has pledged to only sell electric in Europe by 2030; and Volvo has transitioned exclusively to electric and hybrid cars and aims to be an exclusively electric car brand by 2030.

Edwards Station on Thursday issued the following press release on its installation of 12 new high-speed electric vehicle supercharging stations starting this month:

Recognizing the explosive growth of electric vehicles on the horizon and the need for infrastructure to support these, Edwards Station is excited to announce that it is installing 12 high-speed electric vehicle supercharging stations starting this month.

Located directly off I-70 at Exit 163, Edwards Station will soon offer eight Tesla Superchargers and four universal Electrify America chargers to be able to serve all models of electric vehicles.

Earlier this year, East West Hospitality Founder & Chairman Harry Frampton asked Paul Golden – a member of Edwards Station’s original business development team – to pursue an initiative to introduce electric vehicle supercharging service at the Vail Valley station. 

“We worked hard to entice these two entities to consider the Edwards Station property, which was not a given considering how many other potential sites exists along the I-70 corridor in western Colorado,” said Golden. “It took significant investment and there were a lot of hurdles to overcome related to utility easements, drainage, setbacks, soil ratios and parking space requirements that needed to be resolved; it was definitely a collaborative effort.”

Tesla and Electrify America will share a transformer vault that is connected to Holy Cross Energy’s power source. Tesla’s will have 8 superchargers operational by early September;  the Electrify America superchargers will be in play by late October.  

Operated by Colorado’s East West Hospitality, Edwards Station will be one of the first sites in the country to utilize Tesla’s new Pre-Assembled Supercharger technology, enabling got a quicker installation window. 

Both Tesla and Electrify America allow drivers to access a wide variety of metrics through a smart phone app – such as electrical usage and mileage, along with mobile pay technology. Unlike previous charging systems that could take hours to fully charge an e-vehicle, the new superchargers and advances in battery design can do so in less than 30 minutes.

“Our mission is to continue to serve our conventional fuel customers while building a bridge to a greener, more sustainable future,” said Chris Dudar, Chief Operating Officer for Edwards Station. “These new chargers are extremely efficient, providing a full charge for most newer electric vehicles very quickly.”

Edwards Station also offers a 24-hour Shell Gas Station, an automatic car wash, manual wash bays and an Express Lube & Auto Repair. The station also features a market carrying fresh-baked pastries, breakfast sandwiches, Marko’s pizza and deli sandwiches, along with snacks and beverages. Shoppers can enjoy a wide variety of Colorado souvenirs, including t-shits and glass wear. For more information, please visit https://edwardsstation.com/.

Founded nearly 35 years ago, East West Hospitality currently manages more than 40 properties in the Vail Valley, including The Westin Riverfront Resort & Spa in Avon and  The Solaris, The Lion and Lodge Tower in Vail. East West also specializes in management of condominium hotels including retail outlets, commercial properties, world-class spas & fitness centers and restaurants.  With more than $3 billion in assets under management and 1,500+ employees, East West Hospitality prides itself on being a trusted hospitality services company and employer of choice by offering exceptional service, transparency and extensive support. East West Hospitality was named the Vail Valley’s “Business of the Year”  in 2018 by the Vail Daily, Colorado’s “Best Property Management Company” by ColoradoBIZ Magazine and honored as one of the “Top 50 Best Places to Work in 2019” by Outside Magazine.  For more information on East West Hospitality, please visit eastwest.com or call 970.763.7126.

People interested in learning more about energy-efficient transportation can ask questions and see a variety of electric vehicles in person at Waterbury LEAP’s Electric Vehicle Fest at Crossett Brook Middle School on Wednesday, Aug. 18.

This is the fourth time the energy nonprofit has organized such an event for local residents to meet experts in the field and connect with neighbors who already own all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. 

Attendance is free and it will be held in the school cafeteria, 5:30-7 p.m., with pizza, drinks and ice cream for attendees. 

Exhibits will offer information about electric vehicle incentives, charging equipment, electric lawn equipment, e-bikes, and more.  Dave Roberts from Drive Electric Vermont will give a presentation about electric vehicles with Vermont-specific details and he will answer questions.

These annual events are geared for those considering their first EV purchase or lease, and current drivers of EVs interested in the latest technology developments. EV owners in the community are encouraged to attend to share their experiences. 

LEAP organizers expect to have 15-20 different local electric vehicles on display for attendees to check out along the curb outside. “The goal is to have a variety of current car makes and models to show that regardless of your transportation needs, there are EV options for all,” said LEAP Coordinator Alayna Howard. 

The guest list so far includes owners of the Ford Mustang Mach-e, several Tesla models including the Model 3 and Model Y, multiple plug-in hybrids from Toyota, and more. 

COVID-19 precautions will be in place at this event, including ample distancing indoors, masks required for unvaccinated attendees, and hand-sanitizing stations. About 150 people attended LEAP’s last electric vehicle event in 2019.

Waterbury Local Energy Action Partnership (LEAP) is both a nonprofit organization and Waterbury’s volunteer energy committee. More information online at WaterburyLeap.org.